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[文萃]梅冬州 崔小勇 吴娱:房价变动、土地财政与中国经济波动
2018年03月15日 08:32 来源:《经济研究》2018年第1期 作者:梅冬州 崔小勇 吴娱 字号
关键词:房价变动;土地财政;金融加速器;经济波动

内容摘要:本文基于中国土地制度的特点,以及地方政府依赖土地财政的事实,构建了一个包含金融加速器效应的多部门DSGE模型,模型包括房地产和非房地产部门,同时嵌入了地方政府的土地出让行为和支出结构。通过这一模型本文分析了房价影响GDP的作用渠道和机制。我们发现,外部冲击带来的房价变动,导致了房地产部门投资和土地价格的波动,而土地价格的波动对地方政府财政收入产生了较大的影响。考虑到中国地方政府在基础设施上的支出偏向,地方财政收入的变化又会对投资和资产价格产生冲击,在金融加速器效应的作用下,这一冲击进一步放大,最终导致了总投资和GDP的剧烈波动。本文研究表明,地方政府的土地出让行为联结了房价变动与地方政府的收入,而地方政府在基础设施投资上的偏向和金融加速器效应放大了房价对投资和整个经济的影响,三者共同作用使得房地产部门成为中国经济波动的重要来源。

关键词:房价变动;土地财政;金融加速器;经济波动

作者简介:

内容提要:本文基于中国土地制度的特点,以及地方政府依赖土地财政的事实,构建了一个包含金融加速器效应的多部门DSGE模型,模型包括房地产和非房地产部门,同时嵌入了地方政府的土地出让行为和支出结构。通过这一模型本文分析了房价影响GDP的作用渠道和机制。我们发现,外部冲击带来的房价变动,导致了房地产部门投资和土地价格的波动,而土地价格的波动对地方政府财政收入产生了较大的影响。考虑到中国地方政府在基础设施上的支出偏向,地方财政收入的变化又会对投资和资产价格产生冲击,在金融加速器效应的作用下,这一冲击进一步放大,最终导致了总投资和GDP的剧烈波动。本文研究表明,地方政府的土地出让行为联结了房价变动与地方政府的收入,而地方政府在基础设施投资上的偏向和金融加速器效应放大了房价对投资和整个经济的影响,三者共同作用使得房地产部门成为中国经济波动的重要来源。 

关键词:房价变动 土地财政 金融加速器 经济波动 

作者梅冬州,中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院;崔小勇,北京大学经济学院;吴娱,瑞士洛桑联邦理工大学。 

项目本文受国家自然科学基金面上项目(71773149)和青年项目(71303267)、中央财经大学2017年度“青年英才”培育支持计划和北京市社会科学基金项目(17LJB005)的资助。

致谢作者感谢中国人民银行刘斌老师和李建强老师,易方达基金林虎研究员、招商银行万钊研究员的有益讨论和数据支持,感谢中国人民大学陈金至博士的数据处理工作,感谢首都经济贸易大学货殖DSGE模型研讨会上上海交通大学许志伟老师及各位参会老师的精彩评论,感谢两位匿名审稿人有益的修改意见,当然文责自负。 

  House Price Fluctuation, Land Finance and Business Cycle in China 

  MEI Dongzhou, CUI Xiaoyong and WU Yu 

SummaryThe rise and fall of house prices has correlated very highly with Chinas gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations since 2008,and many scholars believe that house prices have "kidnapped" the entire Chinese economy, leading the government into a dilemma of whether to stabilize growth or control house prices. How does such a limited sector move consistently with the macroeconomic volatilityWhy is the Chinese economy tightly linked to the real estate sectorThrough which channels do the house price fluctuations affect the whole economyMoreover,what are the key factors in this process 

To answer these questions,we analyzed the behavior of the major macroeconomic variables. We found that the local governments land finance behavior played a crucial role in the transmission from housing price changes to GDP fluctuations. In this regard,we introduced the real estate and non real estate sectors into the BGG model (Bernanke et al.,1999) along with the local governments to depict land finance. External shocks that influence house prices lead to changes in local governments fiscal revenues and expenditures by affecting land prices. A large part has flowed into the infrastructure. Accordingly,an increase in the house prices facilitates an expansion of the residential and infrastructure investment, and then increases the capital prices. This drives up the price level and reduces the purchasing power of the residents,crowding out consumption. While considering financial frictions,with the financial accelerator effect, this increases the net worth of the enterprises in the production sector,lowering their external financing premium, and thus brings about a further expansion of the business investment. As the housing and infrastructure investment accounts for half of the total investment in fixed assets, an increase in the housing and infrastructure investment leads directly to GDP fluctuations. Therefore, the existence of land finance tightly couples the cycle of house prices to the cycle of local government spending. Inspired by the "GDP Championships", local governments spend more on infrastructure construction, a sharp increase in which follows an increase in house prices. This directly increases the asset prices and further causes dramatic fluctuations in investment and GDP through the financial accelerator effect. 

Our work contributes to the body of literature that examines the importance of the real estate sector with respect to the real economy from the following aspects. 

Research discussing the effect of housing prices on economic fluctuations has ignored the role of land with Chinese characteristics; this paper makes up for this shortcoming. It was once generally assumed that both residents and enterprises needed land. They stood on both the supply and the demand side, and freely bought and sold land, and land prices were determined under these transactions. However, this is not the case in China. It is forbidden to trade land between residents and enterprises; the supply of land comes entirely from the local governments. More importantly, the land revenue in developed countries mainly comes from the collection of property tax on the stock of land or housing, while in China it comes from "land finance". 

To match these stylized facts, this article builds a model on BGG, containing real estate and nonreal estate sectors, and local governments. This model replicates the fiscal behavior of the local governments. Our simulation results suggest that this model helps to explain how house prices "kidnap" the entire Chinese economy and sets up a basic framework for a future discussion on policy response. 

Under this framework, we carry out a general equilibrium analysis of the relationships between house prices, land finance, and economic fluctuations; detail various channels through which house prices affect economic fluctuations; and discuss the role of different factors in the transmission including financial frictions. This is considerably significant for understanding the special status of the real estate sector and the role of land finance in economic fluctuations. 

Keywords:House Prices Fluctuation; Land Finance; Financial Accelerator Effect; Business Cycle 

JEL Classification:E30, E44, H54       

 

作者简介

姓名:梅冬州 崔小勇 吴娱 工作单位:

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