On the Effect of Short-term Volatility on Long-term Growth in Chinese Manufacturing Industries： Based on CPMG Estimate Method

　　基　　金：基金项目：国家社会科学基金项目（10CTJ008）;安徽省自然科学基金项目（1208085MG123）

　　摘　　要：文章使用改革以来我国制造业行业面板数据以及考虑截面相关性的混合组均值（CPMG）估计方法，对我国经济短期波动是否通过全要素生产率和投资渠道对长期增长产生影响进行了实证研究，并区分改革不同阶段以及不同要素密集程度行业进行了比较。研究结果表明：在改革的前一阶段，我国制造业行业短期波动通过生产率渠道对长期增长有显著的正面影响，而对投资的影响不会显著为负；在改革的后一阶段，劳动密集型行业短期波动通过全要素生产率渠道对长期增长有显著的正面影响，对投资的影响显著为负，而资本密集型行业短期波动对全要素生产率和投资的影响都不显著。上述结论对不同的波动度量方法是稳健的。

　　By using the panel data of Chinese manufacturing sectors since the reform and an estimate method of pooled mean group considering cross-sectional correlation, this paper empirically studies the existence of short-term economic volatility on long-term growth through total factor productivity and investment channels, and makes a comparison at differ- ent reform stages and in industries at different factor-intensive levels. It arrives at the empiri- cal results as follows, firstly, at the former stage of the reform, the short-term volatility in Chinese manufacturing sectors has a significantly positive effect on long-term growth through productivity channel and has a significantly positive or not significant effect on in- vestment~ secondly, at the latter stage of the reform, the short-term volatility in labor-in- tensive industries has a significantly positive effect on long-term growth through total factor productivity channel but significantly negative effect on investment, while the short-term volatility in capital-intensive industries has no significant effects on total factor productivity and investment.These results above-mentioned are robust to different volatility measurement methods.

　　关 键 词：制造业 短期波动 长期增长 CPMG估计

　　manufacturing short-term volatility long-term growth CPMG estimate

　　分 类 号：F222.1

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