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[文萃]朱军 许志伟:财政分权、地区竞争与经济波动
2018年03月07日 10:36 来源:《经济研究》2018年第1期 作者:朱军 许志伟 字号
关键词:多级政府;财政分权;竞争性财政;财政政策效应

内容摘要:中央与地方政府在中国转型经济中扮演了关键角色,而多级政府结构往往为传统的财政政策文献所忽略。本文将中央与地方两级政府结构引入主流的动态一般均衡模型中,考察财政分权下地方性财政政策对中国宏观经济的动态影响。研究发现:(1)具有财政分权的多级政府基准模型可以解释约64%的总产出波动、47%的投资波动以及62%的消费波动;(2)地方性公共投资对本地经济具有促进作用,同时通过地区间贸易对其他地区产生正的溢出效应;且该溢出效应会随着地区间财政竞争程度的加深而显著加强,因此财政竞争为地方性投资政策提供了重要的传导机制;(3)反事实分析表明,深度财政分权会在短期内加强地方财政支出的波动效应而削弱中央财政支出的波动效应,同时又在长期提高整个经济总产出与社会总福利。本文为定量研究我国经济转型期的财政政策动态效应提供了一个新的视角。

关键词:多级政府;财政分权;竞争性财政;财政政策效应

作者简介:

  原文标题:财政分权、地区间竞争与中国经济波动

  内容提要:中央与地方政府在中国转型经济中扮演了关键角色,而多级政府结构往往为传统的财政政策文献所忽略。本文将中央与地方两级政府结构引入主流的动态一般均衡模型中,考察财政分权下地方性财政政策对中国宏观经济的动态影响。研究发现:(1)具有财政分权的多级政府基准模型可以解释约64%的总产出波动、47%的投资波动以及62%的消费波动;(2)地方性公共投资对本地经济具有促进作用,同时通过地区间贸易对其他地区产生正的溢出效应;且该溢出效应会随着地区间财政竞争程度的加深而显著加强,因此财政竞争为地方性投资政策提供了重要的传导机制;(3)反事实分析表明,深度财政分权会在短期内加强地方财政支出的波动效应而削弱中央财政支出的波动效应,同时又在长期提高整个经济总产出与社会总福利。本文为定量研究我国经济转型期的财政政策动态效应提供了一个新的视角。

  关键词:多级政府 财政分权 竞争性财政 财政政策效应

  作者简介:朱军,南京财经大学公共财政研究中心、财政与税务学院;许志伟(通讯作者),上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院。

  项目及致谢:本文得到国家自然科学基金青年项目(71403166)、国家社会科学基金青年项目(15CJY077)、国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA037)的资助。作者感谢刘斌、汪冲、郭长林、王文甫的建设性意见,以及“2015财政支出、收入分配与中国经济新常态”学术论坛、“中国宏观经济分析与货币政策分析2015年秋季学术研讨会”与会专家、中南财经政法大学财政税务学院研讨会参与者的有益评论。同时感谢匿名审稿人的建设性意见,但文责自负。

 

  Fiscal Decentralization, Regional Fiscal Competition and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in China

  ZHU Juna and XU Zhiweib

  Summary: Local fiscal conditions undeniably played a crucial role in stabilizing the economy and promoting economic growth during the transformation of the Chinese economy. To cope with the recent financial crisis,a larges cale fiscal stimulus plan combining central and local fiscal policies has become one of the most important policy instruments. However, very little recent literature on fiscal policies has discussed the multi layer structure of the Chinese government. In this study, we incorporated the central local government structure into a standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model. The entire economy was featured with two layers where the local governments implemented various types of fiscal policies. To win the potential competitions between different regions, local governments strategically set their public investment policies to focus on "the gap in regional economic performance". The model was then calibrated based on the central and regional levels of fiscal data.

  To observe the fitting effect of the economic model, we first compared the dynamic results of the total output, investment and consumption with the actual data. The results showed that the corresponding Kydland Prescott variance ratio of the output, investment and consumption in the model was 64%, 47% and 62%, respectively. Using the model, we could explain more than 60% of the fluctuations in the output and consumption and about half of the investment fluctuations, based on fiscal policies and the technology shock. We concluded that the multi layer government DSGE model developed in this study could explain a considerable part of the fluctuations in China’s macro economy. The model enabled us to understand the dynamic effect of the fiscal policy shocks on the entire macro economy. To further analyze the explanatory power of this model with respect to the regional economic fluctuations, we also compared the simulation results of the business cycle statistical characteristics and the actual data from different regions. The statistical results showed that the economic fluctuations in the underdeveloped regions were more volatile than those in the developed regions. In particular, the volatility of the output and the investment in the underdeveloped regions was larger than in the developed regions. This accorded with the literature on cross country comparison. These results revealed that the model had good explanatory power for the regional economic fluctuations.

  The quantitative results showed that the multi layer government structure and the fiscal decentralization performed reasonably well in explaining the Chinese economic cycles. The fiscal competition between local governments provided a key mechanism to amplify the aggregate fluctuations. The local fiscal investment had a positive effect on the local economy and delivered positive spillover effects to the other regions through regional trade. Via counter factual analysis, we found that the deep fiscal decentralization amplified the short term effect of the local fiscal policies and dampened the macroeconomic effects of the central fiscal policies, and also increased the aggregate output and improved social welfare.

  This paper contributes to the literature in the following ways. We introduced a multi region economy into the standard DSGE model and constructed a multi layer government structure, from the viewpoint of which, we distinguished between the disaggregated public expenditures (public consumption and investment) and conducted a quantitative analysis of the dynamic and spillover effects of the local fiscal policies on the macro economy. The introduction of fiscal competition enabled us to quantitatively evaluate the effect of”promotion and competition” between local governments on the macro economy and the underlying transmission mechanism. Finally, the multi layer government structure allowed us to quantify the shortterm and longterm dynamic effects of fiscal decentralization on the Chinese economy.

  Keywords: Multi layer Government; Fiscal Decentralization; Regional Fiscal Competition; Fiscal Policy Evaluation

  JEL Classification:C51,E12,H11

作者简介

姓名:朱军 许志伟 工作单位:

转载请注明来源:中国社会科学网 (责编:张文齐)
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